Red Shirts and Tea Parties

The question of the hour: does Thaksin actually have a large support base, or are the Red Shirts nothing but a loud minority? The Red Shirts are a lot like the Tea Partiers in the US, in that they are both "astroturf" movements (fake grassroots) that proclaim populism but are really just fronts for the business elite, and are actually much smaller than the media portrays them to be. They get a lot of attention, but their numbers are small and they don't represent the masses.

Regardless of how the masses felt towards Thaksin's corrupt state prior to the coup, it seems like the tide is turning against him due to his disrespect towards the monarchy and his friendship with Hun Sen, among other things. Storming Chulalongkorn hospital was a despicable act and a strategic error by the Red Shirts, weakening their momentum. The problem though is that the Democrats represent a traditional pillar of power, and haven't given the rural poor much of a reason to support them. Rightly or wrongly, the rural poor see the Democrats as a manifestation of the static monarchical power that has existed for centuries, and any crumbs from Thaksin are more than welcome. The Democrats believe that they are acting in the best interests of the Thai people, and while this is true, it is antithetical to the concept of democracy. Yet forcing political change through mob rule, while funded by the corporatist and the corrupt, as the Red Shirts are, is much worse for democracy.

Kevin Rafferty, former editor of Thailand's Business Day, notes that, "There is big money backing the red shirts, with large numbers of demonstrators being paid 1,000 baht a day, five times the agricultural wage." When the national and international narrative is confused enough to paint this corporate-backed movement as populist, much like is happening with the Tea Parties in the US, it becomes incredibly difficult to resuscitate logic and have a constructive discourse.

Although 30,000 Red Shirts represent just 0.05 percent of the Thai population, they are causing enough of a distraction that the when elections are finally held, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva will have trouble pointing to successfully implemented social policies in order to show people that he is the most qualified candidate. Just like with the Democrats stateside, Abhisit needs to take media attention off the Red Shirts and put it back on social policy. The only way to show that the Red Shirts are nothing but a loud minority is to enact policies that show immediate concrete gains for the rural poor. This will be reflected in the ballot boxes when elections are finally called. It will take the knees out from under UDD, strengthen democratic and anti-corruption efforts, and most importantly, it will help improve the lives of poor people.